Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Is Fox a news channel?

Fox News has clearly demonstrated that they are a political action group. They should not be treated or viewed by anyone as a News Organization. Please watch this video.....

What do you think?

Please post your comment.

Dollar Oversold?

I believe they are right. With this much bearish sentiment on the greenback, the times must be getting ready to change. I already missed out on buying Newmont puts early in the week. I think the dollar gyrations are just heating up and there will be more opportunity. Maybe I should look at the VIX too.

Please post your comments.


The Daily Reckoning
Wednesday, October 28, 2009

# Gold falls again as dollar rallies on lackluster consumer confidence,
# A closer look at that housing data...minus the "recovery" spin,
# The upside of Peak Oil, a few stocks to play it, and plenty more...


Bill is off trekking around the Andes somewhere, so let's go to Joel Bowman, with a few words from Taipei, Taiwan...

Dollar up, gold down. There's something we haven't written for a while. An ounce of our favorite metal dipped another $7 yesterday after falling $13 on Monday. It was the fourth straight session gold was in the red. Meanwhile everyone's favorite whipping currency, the greenback, consolidated gains won earlier in the week after sluggish consumer confidence data eroded risk appetite.

One day does not a trend make, dear reader, but it does us give pause for thought. What if we dollar bears are wrong about the greenback's fate? What if all these column inches spent bashing the buck - and the frauds at the Fed in charge of protecting it - all come to naught?

"Nonsense!" we say.

Mankind will eventually bury the greenback in the cold, hard ground, alongside every fiat currency that ever went before it. The only question, it seems to us, is when the first shovel of dirt will be thrown. Traders from New York to New Delhi are gathered around the open pit, but they may have to wait, at least for a while. Just to be on the safe side, we've bought (and urged readers to buy) a golden shovel, but for now we're content just leaning on it.

Here in the Far East, the dollar is a particularly curious entity. Once upon a time, the mighty greenback was the best show in town, the "must have" ticket for the rocking Asian economies. China, Korea and Japan all amassed gargantuan stockpiles. The three hold about US$4 trillion (with a "T") in foreign reserves, much of it in US Treasuries. Even Taiwan - an island one-third this size of Tasmania but with a population equal to Australia - has stashed away the equivalent of US$332 billion in foreign reserves.

But that was then. This is now. And now everyone knows what all those dollars - and the men who stand behind them - are really made of...paper and promises, promises and paper. And now that the game is up, everyone is betting on a dollar collapse. But that presents a problem, and an opportunity, in itself...

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority," Mark Twain once observed, "it is time to pause and reflect."

Right now, every necktie on television is betting against the dollar. The Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish and Bearish Funds - which measure the sentiment for and against the greenback versus a basket of six major currencies - are showing dollar bearishness in the extreme. But what if this "recovery" is not all it's cracked up to be? What if equity markets suddenly start resembling reality - even for a short while? If risk appetite contracts, even marginally, might we see a rally in short term Treasuries...just like we did last time? And just how quickly will currency traders be able to cover their short dollar positions if such a scenario unfolds?

We don't know the answers, dear reader. We only observe that the larger the mob, the more likely it is to be galloping in the wrong direction.

So are we dollar bears, or bulls? The answer, dear reader, is both - the former over the long haul...but the latter before then.

Dan Denning, our friend and colleague on our Australian DR desk, puts it thus: "Though we are confirmed US dollar bears, the dollar is looking oversold. Stocks are looking overbought. And frankly the reflation of all asset markets (bonds, stocks, commodities, and real estate) is looking over cooked... Watch out!"

Just in time for Christmas

What a cool website. This specializes in items that are only hand-made. Now if they can provide a local connection we will really be getting back to person-to-person and lowering our carbon footprint.

Nonetheless, this is a great concept and should be supported.

The Internet and Marketing

This presentation by David Gillespie is brilliant.....

I love a couple quotes.... "Data is the bank. Meaning is the currency. Intent drives data + meaning."

It took me a few times through to understand what he is saying. Lots of great info on people I should read up on more like Clay Shirky, Faris Yakob, and Marshall Mcluan (read him 30 years ago - don't think I understood most of it then).

Would enjoy if you post your comments.


Saturday, October 3, 2009

David Einhorn Economic Analysis

Check out the link to this speech on the economy from May 27, 2009. I think this is still relevant. Shorting Moody's back the end of May would have been a good call. Is it still?

Friday, October 2, 2009

Throwing the scoundrels out will not work.

The undated Charlie Reese article has been making its' way around the Internet lately. It got me to thinking about the American public and the two party system we currently enjoy. I think we, the American public, are being played the fool by two parties who really are two sides of the same coin.

The politics of division is the ole' divide and conquer strategy played to perfection. Apparently we enjoy being duped.

The Japanese just voted out the party that has been in control 62 of the last 63 years because following the same strategy our Fed is using now, they have had deflation and a contracting economy for 20 years. Is it going to take 19 years more for Americans to wake up?

I hope not, but, hey, get ready for a long-haul. We had a choice in the last election to pick someone who understands economics, but, our country is not ready for a Ron Paul. He is not slick enough, is too honest, and does not beat a war drum or terrorist drum, or health-care drum or whatever beat a bunch of people want to hear. No, instead he says we need some simple fixes like 1) follow the constitution and issue our own currency and get rid of the Fed and back our currency with gold/silver 2) get out of foreign conflicts and mind our own business and take care of our own borders 3) cut gov't back to the bare essentials of providing defense, courts, law and order, a sound currency, some infrastructure, etc and get the heck out of peoples lives.

But, NNOOOO, we want someone to tell us who to fear and hate. We want someone who will tells us they will invoke God on our behalf. We want someone who is going to give us what we think we need for nothing. We want someone to give us a job. We want someone who is going to give us money.

We want to be lied to. Sure gov't deficits are good. Sure, we can fight every terrorist everywhere in the world. Sure, we can provide free education through college and health care to everyone for every disease. Sure, we can make you healthy. Sure, we can be the moral majority who will make the country and world right for everyone. If you believe this crap, then you are being duped and will reelect the crooks because you believe gov't will make you feel better. You take care of you, but, that is not what we want to hear.

Keep believing the Pub and Dem rhetoric and be happy you have someone to blame - it is much easier on your brain. Ok, go back to sleep now.